Agricultural development in Thanh Hoa province: Current status, pressure from climate change and recommendations

HNUE JOURNAL OF SCIENCE DOI: 10.18173/2354-1067.2017-0053 Social Sci., 2017, Vol. 62, Iss. 5, pp. 209-216 This paper is available online at AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THANH HOA PROVINCE: CURRENT STATUS, PRESSURE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND RECOMMENDATIONS Pham Thi Dieu Linh Academy of Policy and Development Abstract. In the past few years, the agricultural development of Thanh Hoa has suffered from the great damage from climate change, but how the impact of climate change on agricultural development in the coming years will be; and how to reduce the damage from disasters and help agricultural development in this province more effectively and sustainably? The article contributes some ideas to develop agriculture in Thanh Hoa province more effectively and sustainably in the context of climate change. Keywords: Agriculture, climate change, potential, comparative advantages, pressure. 1. Introduction Thanh Hoa province is about 153 km from Hanoi to the South (when the Hanoi - Thanh Hoa highway is completed, taking to Thanh Hoa from Hanoi only takes about 1 hour 30 minutes). According to Japanese experts and experts from Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies (Ministry of Planning and Investment), Nghi Son port will be one of the three peaks of the "Northern Development Triangle: Ha Noi – Hai Phong - Nghi Son". Therefore, Thanh Hoa will play an important role in the economic development in the North of Vietnam; accounting for 3.4% of the total area and 4.3% of the national population. Among the North Central provinces, Thanh Hoa has the largest economic scale. In 2016, GDP at Thanh Hoa’s comparative price was as much as 1.2 times in Nghe An, 2.8 times in Ha Tinh, 5.3 times in Quang Binh and 3.3 times in Thua Thien Hue. Agricultural and rural population takes the major part; and traditional agriculture still dominates. In 2016, the economy of Thanh Hoa province ranked seventh, the scale of budget revenue ranked 14th, export turnover ranked 18th, GDP per capita ranked 26th, the proportion of urban population ranked 28th, population density ranked 30th, immigrants to other cities or provinces ranked 15 (around 4-5% of the population) out of the total 63 provinces and state central cities [1, 2]. Received date: 1/11/2017. Published date: 1/5/2017. Contact: Pham Thi Dieu Linh, e-mail: dieulinh85@gmail.com 209 Pham Thi Dieu Linh 2. Content 2.1. Current status of agricultural development and pressure from climate change Thanh Hoa has the terrain which lowers from West to East and is divided into three distinct subregions. Thanks to that condition, it can develop a diverse agricultural production of agricultural commodity products. This is evident from the following main points: * Sub-mountainous and midland regions: 11 districts (Nhu Xuan, Nhu Thanh, Thuong Xuan, Lang Chanh, Ba Thuoc, Quan Hoa, Quan Son, Muong Lat, Ngoc Lac, Cam Thuy and Thach Thanh) account for 71.8% of the natural area of the whole province. This is an area between the high mountain system of the North West and the Southern Truong Son Mountain Range. The average elevation in the mountains ranges from 600 to 700 meters, the slope is over 250. * Sub-delta: 10 districts (Tho Xuan, Thieu Hoa, Yen Dinh, Dong Son, Vinh Loc, Trieu Son, Nong Cong, Ha Trung, Thanh Hoa and Bim Son) account for 17.1% of the natural area of the whole province. This area is accreted by the Ma River and the Yen River. The subregion is characterized by alternating topography between the lowland and limestone hills, with an average elevation of 5 - 15 meters, and some lowland areas such as Ha Trung with a height of only 0 - 1 meters. In general, the plains have relatively flat terrain, favorable for agricultural and industrial development. * Sub-coastal areas: including 6 districts along the coast from Nga Son, Hau Loc, Hoang Hoa, Sam Son, Quang Xuong to Tinh Gia; accounting for 11.1% of the natural area. The subregion is flat, with an average elevation of 3 - 6 meters. Particularly in the south of Tinh Gia district, the terrain is shaped like a buffalo, with long hills leading to the sea. This area with great potential for agricultural development (cultivation, poultry farming), especially aquaculture, industry, small scale industry, port construction and water transportation services. In general, Thanh Hoa still dominates traditional agriculture, forestry and fishery production, agricultural production in the province has not yet been organized. In 2016, while agriculture accounts for about 45.6% of labor, only about 11% of the province’s GDP. While around 24.6 thousand hectares of agricultural land only generated VND 5,277 billion value added. Meaning that each hectare of agricultural land only creates about VND 20 million (prices of 2010). It’s low. In the northern mountainous areas such as Son La province, Hoa Binh province has a growing area for tomatoes (for city food and for export) or for growing baby cucumber or orange planting brought about VND 300-400 million, or in particular, the area where the label grows brought about VND 600-800 million per hectare. At present, about 90-92 agricultural laborers are required to produce 1% of agricultural added value in Thanh Hoa. That is low labor productivity. The structure of agricultural production reveals many inadequacies. Crop production accounts for 63-64% of total agricultural output. New agricultural services account for 5-6%. Generally, the productivity of major crops and livestock in Thanh Hoa is equal to or lower than the national average. Why is there such a situation? The causes are many, but the agricultural production of Thanh Hoa slowly changes the structure of the industry. It is less modernized, more disturbed by climate change and rising sea level. 210 Agricultural development in Thanh Hoa province: current status, pressure from climate change... Table 1. Structure of Agricultural Production (%) Criteria 2010 2015 Estimated 2016 Output value, VND billion 5.441 6.304 6.853 Structure, % 100 100 100 Crops 72,1 67,5 63,5 Livestock 24,6 28,0 31,0 Agricultural services 3,3 4,5 5,5 (Source: Processed according to 2016 statistics) Table 2. Output of major crops and livestock in Thanh Hoa Unit 2010 Estimated 2016 1- Rice Ton 49,1 58,9 % compared with the whole country Time 1,1 1,02 2- Corn Ton 37,4 40,8 % compared with the whole country Time 1,04 0,95 3- Sugar Cane Ton 48,2 53,6 % compared with the whole country Time 0,86 0,84 4- Soybean Ton 1,31 1,50 % compared with the whole country Time 0,92 1,03 5- Milk productivity/ 1 cow L/day 16 23 % compared with the whole country Time 0,73 0,82 (Source: Processed according to the national statistics and Thanh Hoa’s statistics, 2016) Livestock of Thanh Hoa province has not seen significant changes in the past few years. Livestock is still mostly traditional pets such as pigs, poultry and cows. Table 3. Herd of cattle and poultry Pets Unit 2010 2015 Estimated 2016 Pig 1000 heads 874,5 910 1200 Cow 1000 heads 1,5 8 10 Ox 1000 heads 244,8 255 280 Buffalo 1000 heads 207,9 225 254 Goat 1000 heads 59,4 65 73 Chicken Million heads 12,6 17,8 19,5 Duck Million heads 4,2 5,1 6,5 Meat output Pork 1000 ton 130,4 142 169 Beef 1000 ton 16,5 17,8 21 Poultry meat 1000 ton 29,9 31,2 34,7 Egg Million eggs 39,6 41,6 44,8 Honey bee 1000 litres 68 69 74 (Source: Thanh Hoa’s statistics, 2016) 211 Pham Thi Dieu Linh Aquaculture (mainly fresh water fish and black tiger shrimp, brackish white shrimp) in Thanh Hoa province is mainly developed in extensive farming. Although the aquaculture area is about 31-32 thousands of hectares, the output of aquaculture is only about 52-53 thousand tons (average 9-10 kg/ person/ year). Aquaculture productivity and quality are low (only about 1.5 tons / ha). According to in Thanh Hoa province, the trend of abandonment has tended to increase from 2010 upto now [7]. The causes were many, but through research, the author found out that the main cause of agricultural production in general and especially food production in particular was very low, farmers did not make profit. Meanwhile, the cost of meeting daily basic needs such as eating and traveling, especially the cost of education and medical treatment for children was not guaranteed. The rate of agricultural products were low and slowly increased, thus contributing to low incomes of farmers. Table 4. The rate of agricultural products Criteria Unit 2010 2015 2016 Annual increasing % 10-15 11-16 1. Value added agriculture, prices in 2010 VND Billion 4.309 4.935 5.501 2,8 3,6 % compared with agricultural productivity value % 43,1 44,2 44,6 - - 2. Agricultural commodity value VND Billion 1.420 1.736 1.961 4,1 4,2 % compared with agricultural productivity value % 14,5 15,3 15,9 - - (Source: Proccessed according to Thanh Hoa’s statistics, 2016) According to the project of agricultural restructuring of Thanh Hoa province, profit per hectare of farmland is still modest. Rubber trees have the highest economic benefit, the average profit is about 40.7 million / ha / year; However, the investment costs are high, the investment time is long, the consumption market is now difficult. Vegetables have an average profit of 29.7 million VND / ha / crop, 1.5 times higher than that of rice, but still low productivity. Sugarcane yields of 65 tonnes per hectare, the sugarcane growers can profit just as much as rice. The current productivity of sugarcanes in the province is low compared to Nghe An and the whole country, so intensive investment to improve sugarcane yields is an important task in the near future. Maize and soybean have a profit of about 12 million VND / ha / crop. Peanut has low profit, only about 3.3 million VND / ha / crop. According to the project of agricultural restructuring of the province, for raising livestock, the profit of raising buffalo meat is about 14 million VND / year; Raising beef 11 million / year / child; Raising sows outside 3.6 million / head / year; Raising 3.8 million VND chicken / 50 breeding chicken / year. The share of agricultural products that meet VietGAP standards and high-tech agricultural products in the total value of agricultural production is also limited. 212 Agricultural development in Thanh Hoa province: current status, pressure from climate change... Table 5. Rate of agricultural products value meets VietGAP standard Criteria Unit 2010 2015 2016 Annual increasing % 10-15 11-16 1. High tech agricultural products VND Billion 118 138 161 3,2 5,2 % compared with agricultural productivity value % 1,2 1,2 1,3 - - 2. Agricultural products value meets VietGAP* VND Billion 102,8 124,8 154,2 3,95 7,30 % compared with agricultural productivity value % 1,05 1,17 1,25 - - (Source: Author proccessed according to statistics, 2016; * Summary of agricultural products labelled VietGAP) 2.2. Pressure from climate change on agricultural development of Thanh Hoa province According to www.corenarm.org.vn, on 22/01/2015, in Hanoi, the Government of Vietnam held a presentation "Advisory Council of the National Committee on Climate Change and Publication Report Vietnam’s Special Disaster Risk Management and Extreme Politics to Promote Adaptation to Climate Change". Here, the average annual number of casualties and economic losses due to natural disasters and extremes in Vietnam compared to other countries is quite high, while the risks are growing. Increased by the impact of climate change. The report provides a series of actions to address the increasing risks of climate change, including enhanced risk analysis; Improve early warning system; Strengthening urban space planning; Infrastructure, housing and other structures; Protection and social assistance systems, especially for the elderly and children. According to some scientists of the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, climate change greatly affects the development of Vietnam. They said that in the period 1960 - 2008, Vietnam suffered about 12 storms each year, the temperature increased about 0.6-0.9oc, sea level rise about 15-20 cm. For the 10 years from 2008 to 2016, the indicators of climate change are more pronounced. According to the scientists of this institute, for Vietnam, if the sea level rises 0.25 m (by 2020), 0.9% of the country’s area is flooded and about 2.4% of the population is affected. ; If the sea level rises by 0.5 m (as of 2050), 4.2% of the area is flooded and 5.2% of the population of Vietnam is affected. If sea level rises by 1 meter (about 2100), 9.1% of the country’s area is flooded and 16% of the population of Vietnam is affected. Without safeguards such as strengthening the dyke system and improving drainage systems, sea level rise of 1 meter along the coast of Vietnam would cause flooding of 17,423 square kilometers, equivalent to 5, 3% of total land area of Vietnam. Of these, 82% of the Mekong River Delta will be inundated, 9% of the Red River Delta will be inundated and more than 4% of the North Central and Southeast regions will be inundated. Regardless of the scenario, it is also a great influence for Vietnam that policy makers in general development and development of agriculture in particular of our country must pay close attention to the right way. That is a point to consider when researching sustainable agricultural development in Thanh Hoa 213 Pham Thi Dieu Linh in the coming years. 2.3. Some suggestions for sustainable development of Thanh Hoa’s agriculture in the coming years To develop effective, sustainable agriculture of Thanh Hoa province in the context of climate change need to do some basic things below: (1). Building a disaster warning and climate change warning system. Coordinate with central sectors to build a disaster prediction center, climate change, and provide sufficient and timely information on climate change and price, market and availability. Competitiveness ... (2). To renovate the agricultural structure along the direction of forming a number of key domestic plants and animals, concentrating and using high technologies. It is necessary to develop a number of hi-tech agricultural parks and a number of agro-industrial complexes in association with developing a number of important agro-industrial value chains in Thanh Hoa province in the direction of serving the needs of Thanh City. Hoa Phuc, Sam Son urban area, Nghi Son economic zone, tourists and exporters. 2.3.1. Agricultural development of high technology application + To increase the area of high-tech crop in the direction of greenhouse cultivation, net house, specialization area. Table 6. Summary of hi-tech agricultural area of Thanh Hoa Province upto 2025 Kinds of crops/ livestock Estimated 2020 Estimated 2025 Ha % 103 Ha % Total area of crops 660 100 20-25 100 1. Sugar cane 100 15,2 10-12 50,0 2. Orange plants 50 7,6 2-3 10,0 3. Sweet melon plant * 200 30,3 5-6 25,0 4. Clean vegetables high quality 200 30,3 2,5-3 12,5 5. Pasture for ox farming 110 16,6 0,5-1 2,5 (Source: Author; Note: * Two types of sweet melon imported from Israel are Kim Hoang Hau or orange Kim Co Nuong) Table 7. Forecasts of livestock and poultry using high technology Livestock Unit Estimated 2020 Estimated 2025 Cow head 50.000 75.000 High quality ox head 30.000 50.000 Pig 1000 heads 30 50 Pig for export 1000 heads 300 350 Chicken 1000 heads 8 10 Ri Chicken 1000 heads 1100 1800 Duck 1000 heads 700 1200 (Source: Author) 214 Agricultural development in Thanh Hoa province: current status, pressure from climate change... + Developing ox farms of 25-30 thousand heads and organic dairy cows according under European standards (EU) about 15-20 thousand (for fresh milk production: 19-20 liters/ day/ cow). 2.3.2. Organizing agricultural production in the advanced direction In the coming years, to fundamentally and rapidly renovate the organization of agricultural production in Thanh Hoa province. Detail: + Develop specialization in 3 sub-regions in a reasonable way Table 8. Summary of development orientation and policy implications by sub-region Sub-region Specialized orientation Policy implication Coastal sub-regions Pig farming, brackish water aquaculture, salt water and food production. Reduce the negative impact of salinity intrusion, encourage the transformation of production from farming to farm, farm, processing industry. Delta sub-regions Produce real food, raise pigs, poultry, freshwater aquaculture and grow high quality vegetables Irrigation, support technical application technology, development of processing industry Mountainous sub-regions Planting industrial crops, fruit trees, high quality food crops, cattle raising for meat and milk, poultry breeding Assist in the development of value chains and encourage the formation of territorial production units or high-tech agricultural areas (Source: Author) + Organizing the production of agro-products along the value chain combining to form an agricultural-industrial complex in the province along the direction of modernization. For orange and sweet melon: Take Lam Son Sugarcane Company as the core to form an orange value chain and sweet melon value chain using high technology. For high quality and safe vegetables: Planting - harvesting - preservation - processing and consumption. By 2025, the safe vegetable production area will be around 18-20 thousand hectares. Local authorities organize for long-term contract farming with scientists, processors and trade centers (markets, supermarkets) to ensure the benefits for both farmers and houses. Processing, home consumption. For high quality rice: Import high quality rice from Japan and Israel to produce high quality rice to meet domestic consumption and export to East Asian countries. (Japan, Korea, Philippines, Singapore). For raising beef cattle: breeding - breeding - slaughter and processing - consumption. Formation of concentrated beef farming areas associated with processing facilities and consumers into value to enhance added value and meet high quality demand for tourists and large cities in the country, Then step by step export to countries in the region. In the process of development, local authorities have signed contracts between producers and scientific research institutions for seed development, livestock breeding and meat processing. 215 Pham Thi Dieu Linh For clean pig breeding: breeding - breeding - slaughtering - processing and consumption. First of all, the value chain should be established for dairy piglets. The local government has set up a farmer-to-farmer association with scientists and consumers to export dairy pork. Dairy domestic pigs have levels. But dairy farmers must be organized and trained to obtain certified milk. For brackish shrimp farming, freshwater fish culture: Breeding - aquaculture - capture - processing - consumption. Local authorities have organized shrimp farmers, fishes signed contracts with scientific researchers for production and signed long-term contracts with hotels, restaurants and supermarkets in the area and outside. the provincial. (3). Improving the effectiveness and effectiveness of state management of agricultural development. First of all it is necessary to review agricultural development planning taking into account the effects of climate change. At the same time, to promulgate and organize the implementation of a number of specific policies for the development of hi-tech agriculture, mitigating the risks arising from climate change. 3. Conclusion Agriculture of Thanh Hoa province is heavily influenced by climate change and its development efficiency is low. Demand for on-site foodstuffs and access to the Hanoi market is relatively high. In order to develop the agricultu