Unemployment

Chapter 27 Unemployment David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch, Economics, 6th Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2000 Power Point presentation by Peter Smith 27.1 Some key terms  Unemployment rate: – the percentage of the labour force without a job but registered as being willing and available for work  Labour force – those people holding a job or registered as being willing and available for work  Participation rate – the percentage of the population of working age declaring themselves to be in the labour force 27.2 Unemployment in the UK, 1950-99 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 19 50 19 70 19 90 % p. a. Source: Economic Trends Annual Supplement, Labour Market Trends 27.3 Unemployment (%) in selected countries 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 % 1972 1982 1999 UK Ireland France EU USA 27.4 Labour market flows It is tempting to see the labour market in static terms Working Unemployed Out of the labour force but... 27.5 Labour market flows Working Unemployed Out of the labour force Taking a job Retiring Temporarily leaving New hires Recalls Job-losers Lay-offs Quits Re-entrants New entrants Discouraged workers 27.6 More on labour market flows  The size of these flows is surprisingly high  In 1999 unemployment in the UK began at 1.29 million  During the year: – 3.14 million became unemployed – but 3.3 million left the ranks of the unemployed 27.7 The composition of unemployment Different groups in society are more vulnerable to unemployment, varying by: – age – gender – region – ethnic origin 27.8 Types of unemployment  Frictional – the irreducible minimum level of unemployment in a dynamic society  people between jobs  the ‘almost unemployable’  Structural – unemployment arising from a mismatch of skills and job opportunities when the pattern of demand and production changes  it takes time for ex-coal miners to retrain as international bankers 27.9 Types of unemployment (2)  Demand-deficient unemployment – occurs when output is below full capacity – ‘Keynesian’ unemployment occurs in the transitional period before wages and prices have fully adjusted  Classical unemployment – created when the wage is deliberately maintained above the level at which labour supply and labour demand schedules intersect 27.10 A ‘modern’ view of unemployment  A similar categorization is retained, but an important distinction is to be noted between:  Voluntary unemployment – when a worker chooses not to accept a job at the going wage rate  Involuntary unemployment – when a worker would be willing to accept a job at the going wage but cannot get an offer. 27.11 The natural rate of unemployment Number of workers R e a l w a g e LD LD: labour demand LF LF: size of labour forceAJ AJ: the number of workers prepared to accept jobs AJ is to the left of LF because some members of the labour force are between jobs, others are waiting for better offers. w* N* N1 Equilibrium is at w*, N*. The distance EF is the natural rate of unemployment. E F 27.12 The natural rate of unemployment  The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment when the labour market is in equilibrium.  This is entirely voluntary.  It includes: – frictional unemployment – structural unemployment 27.13 w2 Suppose that union power succeeds in maintaining a real wage of w2. Classical unemployment Number of workers R e a l w a g e LD LF AJ w* N* N1 and AB is involuntary A N2 Equilibrium is at AB of which BC is voluntary C and unemployment is AC, To the extent that this unemployment reflects a conscious decision by unions to restrict employment, it is voluntary unemployment. 27.14 UK unemployment 1956-95 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 56-59 60-8 69-73 74-80 81-87 88-90 91-95 Actual rate Natural rate 27.15 Supply-side economics  entails the use of microeconomic incentives to alter – the level of full employment – the level of potential output – the natural rate of unemployment  In the long run the performance of the economy can only be changed only by affecting the level of full employment and the corresponding level of potential output. 27.16 Tax cuts and unemployment Number of workers R e a l w a g e LD LF AJ w1 With an income tax, the gross wage paid by firms (w1) w3 is higher than the take-home net pay of workers (w3). N1 Equilibrium is at N1 w2 N2 E Without tax, equilibrium is at E. EF is less than BC because of the relative slopes of LF & AJ but the differences may not be substantial. AB is the amount of tax A B Unemployment is BC C F Unemployment is now EF. 27.17 Other supply-side policies  Trade union reform – reducing the power of trade unions may limit distortions in the labour market  Other labour supply policies – training and retraining measures – improving the efficiency of the labour market  such measures may affect frictional and structural unemployment  Investment – higher investment may increase the demand for labour  may be achieved via tax incentives or low interest rates 27.18 Hysteresis  The idea that a (short-run) fall in labour demand may lead to a permanent fall in labour supply  This could help to explain high and persistent unemployment in Europe in the 1980s 27.19 Hysteresis (continued)  Four channels: – Insider-outsider distinction  only those in work take part in wage bargaining & they protect their own positions – Discouraged workers  people stop looking for jobs – Search and mismatch  firms and workers get used to low search – capital stock  low levels of investment in recession lead to permanently low capital stock levels